Spring has arrived. The days are growing longer, birds are happily chirping, temperatures are rising, and trees that lost all their leaves are blanketed with buds of new life. The official first day of spring was Friday, March 20th. It was also the beginning of housing’s Spring Market, the busiest season for real estate.
The Spring Market runs from mid-March through May. It is still the Winter Market in early March, which runs from mid-January to mid-March. That is when the inventory does not change much, buyer demand surges onto the scene and rockets higher, and the market speed accelerates rapidly. It sets up the Spring Market. Spring is characterized by a steadily rising inventory, buyer demand that slowly grows, peaks between April and May, and then slowly falls, and the Expected Market Time, the market speed, slowly rises.
Looking at the 10-year average from 2015 to 2024, an elevated number of homes are placed on the market from March through August. The peak month is June. As a result, the inventory methodically climbs. Due to the high mortgage rate environment, many homeowners have opted to “hunker down” in their homes, unwilling to move due to their current underlying, locked-in, low fixed-rate mortgage. Yet, that phenomenon has been slowly fading. So far in 2025, there have been 22% more FOR SALE signs this year than last year, and 43% more than in 2023. These extra homes have accumulated over time, allowing the active inventory to grow in 2024 and 2025. Last year, the inventory expanded from 7,924 in March to 10,086 by the end of spring, up 27% or 2,162 homes. The 3-year pre-pandemic average (2017 to 2019) grew from 10,983 to 12,139, up 11% or 1,156. This year’s spring inventory started at 11,469, a substantial 56% higher than last year, and 9% higher than before COVID.
Demand (a snapshot of the number of new pending sales over the prior month) has accelerated since mid-January. It slowly rises, peaks, and then slowly falls during the spring. Last year, from mid-March through May, it increased by 6% or 206 pending sales, growing from 3,647 to 3,853. The 3-year pre-pandemic average climbed from 5,461 pending sales to 5,990, up 10% or 529. Demand this year started at 3,854 pending sales, 1% lower than last year, and a substantial 32% less than before COVID.
The Expected Market Time (the number of days it takes to sell all Los Angeles County listings at the current buying pace) is based on supply and demand (the active inventory and recent pending sales activity). After dropping to its lowest, fastest level, typically at the start of spring, the market slows slightly from week to week. Last year during the Spring Market, the Expected Market Time decelerated from 65 to 79 days. During the 3-year pre-COVID average, the housing market slowed from 60 to 62 days. This spring started with an Expected Market Time of 94 days.
A 94-day Expected Market Time is the slowest spring pace since tracking began in 2012. The slower speed is precisely why in 2025 it is a “buyer’s spring.” Some homes still procure multiple offers and sell nearly instantly, but that is not the case for the housing market as a whole. It depends on the area, the price range, pricing accuracy, condition, location, and amenities. Many homes have been sitting on the market without success. A revealing 58% of the active listing inventory has been on the market for at least one month, and 35% has been sitting for at least two months. Many sellers have been a bit overzealous in pricing their homes. Surprisingly, 29% of all active listings have reduced the asking price at least once. This is relatively high for a market that just transitioned to the Spring Market.
If the inventory grows at the same pace as last year, up 27%, it would climb from 11,469 homes to 14,598. That would be the highest level since 2012, when it finished the spring at 14,767 homes. And, if demand rises by 6% like last year, it would increase from 3,854 pending sales to 4,072, remaining at muted levels similar to the past couple of years due to the high interest rate environment and affordability constraints. That would result in the Expected Market Time increasing from 94 to 108 days, adding 14 days and the slowest pace to end the spring market since tracking began in 2012.
While spring is the busiest time of the year in terms of pending sales volume, the most buyer activity of the year, it is also when more sellers surge onto the scene. As a result, the market slows from week to week. The best time of the year for sellers is suddenly in the rearview mirror. Those homeowners who wait until later in the year, or the sellers who languish on the market due to improper pricing, will be confronted with more seller competition and longer market times. Housing is not as instant as the past several years. Finally, buyers are in a much better position. It is a buyer’s spring.
