President Donald Trump's sweeping new tariffs on imported goods from 60 countries plunged the global stock markets into a state of turmoil, sparking recession fears—but the controversial trade policy could up end up being an unexpected boon for the luxury real estate market.
Not surprisingly, stock market performance has an outsized impact on high-end-home buyers, who are more likely to invest in stocks than their less wealthy counterparts.
As of April 6, the S&P 500 had tumbled by 15% since Trump's inauguration in late January, according to CNN, amid a growing economic uncertainty. In the wake of his tariff rollout on April 2, which the president touted as "Liberation Day," stock markets around the world suffered an estimated loss of about $10 trillion in market value.
Days of up-and-down trading followed, as China retaliated against the U.S. with 84% tariffs. On April 9, the European Union approved new levies of its own on $23 billion in U.S.-made products, according to Reuters.
Trump then responded by pausing all the new tariffs for 90 days, with the exception of China, on whom he increased the tariffs to 125%.
However, a potential silver lining to this frenzied market volatility is that it could prompt jittery investors to spurn stocks in favor of pricey real estate, "as they seek the reliability of a tangible asset," Realtor.com® Chief Economist Danielle Hale predicts in her 2025 Luxury Housing Market Outlook.
"In an economic environment riddled with uncertainty, investors are seeking out safe havens. For many, this is found in bonds, but real estate may be an alternative for some," says Hale. "While real estate can lose value, it is a tangible asset that not only provides shelter, it tends to have more stable pricing than stocks."
Should Trump make another U-turn and fully implement the tariffs as announced, according to Hale, that could undermine economic growth, diminishing incomes and investment returns, and shrinking homebuyers' purchasing power.
"For now, it looks like a reprieve has been issued for many countries, but as we've seen very clearly in the last few weeks, the situation can change, so it's wise for high-end-home buyers to stay abreast of the news," Hale notes.
The good news for these deep-pocketed house hunters is that the high-end real estate market has plenty of room to grow.
The total value of domestic household real estate at the end of 2024 reached the second-highest level ever recorded, according to a Realtor.com analysis, totaling a staggering $48.1 trillion, representing a 7% increase from the previous year. Notably, gains in real estate value were largest among the ultrarich.
Even so, real estate value made up just 18.7% of total assets among the wealthiest 10% of U.S. households, down from just under 20% two years prior.
Meanwhile, corporate equities, which include futures and other financial instruments, as well as mutual fund shares, comprised more than a third of their assets, the highest share ever recorded.
Simply put, real estate made up a smaller portion of the average portfolios of the affluent set late last year, signaling that there is a lot of growth potential in the high-end housing market.
"The combination of significant stock market wealth and relatively low debt in real estate among the wealthiest 10% suggests that this cohort has more capacity for real estate investment," says Hale.
The Realtor.com economist warns that real estate has its own set of issues, namely, property taxes and insurance costs, as well as maintenance and upkeep.
"Still, real estate can be a place to park money, and when the world feels uncertain, we often see an interest in home and real estate purchases," Hale adds.
The appeal of the U.S. luxury housing market is not lost on moneyed Russians, who reportedly have resumed buying eye-wateringly expensive properties in New York City after a 10-year hiatus.
"I've had five Russians look at properties in the $10 million to $20 million range in the past few weeks—condos and town houses," a New York broker was quoted as telling the outlet Air Mail.
The shift, according to the unnamed broker, comes down to Trump's relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he previously praised as a "genius" and "savvy," before souring on the Kremlin strongman over his intransigence in the proposed peace deal with Ukraine.
But the cooling relations between the two world leaders apparently have done nothing to diminish wealthy Russians' homeownership ambitions on U.S. soil.
"They aren’t afraid to buy anymore," the broker told the outlet about the incoming Eastern European investors.
The reason for that is that the Trump administration appears to be more welcoming to Russian oligarchs than its Democratic predecessor. Although sanctions against Putin's government and Russian companies are still in effect, the current Justice Department has done away with units that investigated misbegotten money invested in real estate and yachts.
A Douglas Elliman broker told Air Mail that her Russian clients currently living in Monaco are looking forward to buying real estate in the U.S. because they value American education and high-quality new construction.
Data from the National Association of Realtors® suggests that the $1 million-plus category of homes has been the fastest-growing sales share for 21 consecutive months, and now makes up 7.6% of recent home sales.
The reason for that is that affluent homebuyers more often have a lot of existing equity and do not have to rely on mortgage financing, and, therefore, they are not deterred by the high rates.
However, the number of for-sale homes priced above $1 million shrank, amounting to an average of 12.8% of all listings year to date in 2025. For comparison, in 2024 that share was 13.6%.
Time on the market for high-end listings shimmied down from 76 days to 75, even as homes priced below $1 million remained unsold for 64 days, up from 58 the year before.
On top of that, price cuts have ticked up from 20.8% to 22.6% among homes with an asking price below $1 million, but remained roughly flat among luxury properties.
