Brightly colored tulips are synonymous with spring. The life cycle of a tulip is an annual journey that mostly takes place underground. It relies on colder temperatures that trigger the bulb to start the blooming process. In warmer climates, the bulbs are refrigerated for 8 to 10 weeks to simulate winter freezing, then planted from late November through December. By February, plenty is going on underground as the tulips begin to sprout. The peak colorful blooms arrive in March, just in time for spring.
For the Los Angeles County housing market, the winter season does not need to be simulated. Demand slows tremendously from mid-November through the first couple of weeks of January, the Holiday Market. It is the slowest time of the year. In mid-January, the holidays fade into the Winter Market, when housing begins to sprout. Demand surges higher, and the active inventory can hardly keep up. The Market Time speeds up from week to week, accelerating as more buyers begin their searching process. By late March, the Spring Market arrives in full bloom. Demand reaches its annual peak, and the inventory continues to grow weekly.
It is the Winter Market when housing’s momentum builds, accelerating from week to week. It moves from a crawl to nearly full speed by the time spring arrives. The Spring Market is when demand maintains its strong trajectory while inventory continues to rise rapidly. With demand (a snapshot of the number of new pending sales over the prior month) elevated but no longer rapidly growing, and demand pushing higher and higher, the Expected Market Time (the number of days it takes to sell all Los Angeles County listings at the current buying pace) grows longer each week.
The 2-year average (2024-2025) change in demand from the end of March through the end of June was an increase from 3,865 pending sales to 3,891, up only 1%, with the annual peaks coming in early May (last year) to the end of August (2024 and much later than normal). At the same time, the 2-year average (2024-2025) change in active inventory from the end of March through the end of June was a revealing 28% increase. Last year, it grew from 12,119 homes to 14,882, up 2,763 or 23%. In 2024, it increased from 7,748 to 10,547, up 2,799 or 36%.
As the inventory climbed higher and demand remained relatively flat, the Expected Market Time increased. Over the past 2 years, the market has slowed by an average of 21 days. Last year, it slowed from 94 days to 116, an increase of 22 days. In 2024, it slowed from 60 days to 84, an increase of 24 days.
Everyone has the misconception that spring is the “hottest time of the year” for real estate. That is true for pending and closed sales, as demand remains elevated but changes little. It translates to plenty of closed sales. But it is not the hottest period in terms of market speed, as measured by the Expected Market Time. That occurs between the very end of February and mid-April. In 2024, the lowest (hottest) reading was 90 days in mid-March. In 2025, the lowest (hottest) reading was 64 days, in mid-February.
The inventory grows because more homes come on the market in Los Angeles County from March through October. More homes come on the market in May than in any other month, yet April, June, and July are quite similar. With a seasonally high number of homes coming on the market during the Spring and Summer Markets, which matches up with elevated but flat demand, the market slows during the spring and summer.
It is not until the inventory peaks and starts to fall that the market stops slowing, typically occurring between July and August in Los Angeles County (August last year, and October in 2024).
ATTENTION SELLERS: The market slows each week due to increased seller competition. The market is still strong, but it does slow over time. Regardless, the best approach to the housing market is precision pricing, accurately pricing a home based on its true Fair Market Value, taking into consideration location, condition, upgrades, and amenities, and carefully considering all recent comparable closed and pending sales.
ATTENTION BUYERS: Even in a slowing market, accurately priced, well-maintained homes will still fly off the market, fetching prices close to or even above the asking price. It is a great time to be a buyer, with more choices and mortgage rates lower than last year, yet it still boils down to each individual home that is placed on the market and the interest it generates. “Wow” properties, accurately priced with all the bells and whistles, tend to attract multiple offers. Homes that have been lingering on the market and need a little bit of “elbow grease” tend to be more negotiable
