The Holiday Market
Due to all the holiday distractions, from the week before Thanksgiving through the end of the year, supply and demand will plunge.
That was quick! All the kids just went door-to-door trick-or-treating, filling their pillow cases full of as much candy as they could carry. Lawns were garnished with cleverly phrased tombstones, and giant spiderwebs blanketed houses and trees. There were large blowups, skeletons that stretched to the sky, and creatively carved pumpkins glowing from the candles within. In the blink of an eye, all the decorations disappeared, neatly put back into their boxes and placed back onto the shelves in the garage. Starbucks launched its next set of holiday cups, and advertisements began reminding everyone that Santa was back and the shopping season had arrived. Meanwhile, some of the neighbors started trimming their homes with lights. The holidays have arrived!
It is an excellent reminder that housing is about to transition from the Autumn Market to the Holiday Market, from the week before Thanksgiving through the first couple of weeks of the New Year. Without fail, the holidays are a time when inventory and demand plunge, and the Expected Market Time — the speed of the market — remains relatively unchanged. This is the season when many sellers and buyers will place their real estate goals on hold while they enjoy all of the holiday festivities. It is time to pause, celebrate, gather, and reflect.
Over the past couple of years, more homeowners have decided to place their homes on the market. With demand remaining almost unchanged over the past three years, the extra "FOR SALE" signs have resulted in more homes accumulating on the market. The number of available homes was higher in 2024 than in 2023, and it was even higher this year than last year. Los Angeles County has finally reached pre-pandemic levels. Last year, after peaking in October at 12,106 homes, the inventory dropped to 11,788 by the start of November, a 3% decrease. During the Holiday Market, the inventory plummeted by 28%, reaching 8,533 by the first week of January. In 2023, it dropped by 25% from 9,053 to 6,827. In 2022, it fell by 27%, from 10,790 to 7,907. This year, after peaking at 15,310 homes in August, the inventory has decreased by 10% to 13,829 as of today. With all the holiday distractions, expect the inventory to drop by about 28% through the end of the year.
December is home to the fewest number of homes placed on the market, followed by November, which has the second fewest. Intuitively, homeowners recognize that the holidays are not the best time of year to sell their homes for top dollar.
In addition, the greatest number of sellers throw in the towel and pull their homes off the market to enjoy the holidays. So far this year, there are 25,813 sellers who have thrown in the towel, which is up 60% compared to last year. The current trend of more sellers throwing in the towel this year, due to a higher number of listings languishing on the market, will continue through year’s end.
Demand drops substantially during the holidays as well. Many buyers wait eagerly on the sidelines for fresh inventory to hit the market. With minimal new listings and many sellers opting out as the year draws to a close, the market will face a noticeable shortage of fresh inventory. Additionally, many buyers embrace all the holiday festivities and are ready to take a break until after the New Year. Demand tumbled by 29% last year, from 3,498 pending sales in November to 2,490 during the first week of January. In 2023, it dropped from 3,101 in November to 2,370 during the first week of January 2024, a 24% decrease. It sank from 3,236 in November 2022 to 2,325 during the first week of January 2023, representing a 28% decline.
Demand (a snapshot of the number of new pending sales over the prior month) is slightly higher than last year, with 3,623 pending sales today versus 3,498 a year ago, 4% higher. Demand is unlikely to decline as much as it did last year, by 29%, because mortgage rates are currently at 6.34%, substantially lower than the over 7% rate last year. Nonetheless, demand will still drop considerably to close out 2025.
Interestingly, as both supply and demand decrease, the overall speed of the market remains relatively unchanged. Many buyers believe that the end of the year is when the market speed comes to a screeching halt. While it may be true that the remaining sellers who opt to remain on the market during this time of the year are more willing to negotiate, it is not the market for “low-ball” offers.
With supply and demand dropping at a similar pace, the Expected Market Time (the number of days it takes to sell all Los Angeles County listings at the current buying pace) does not change much for the rest of the year. That has been the case since 2020, changing by only a few days. This year will be no different.
There is no escaping it. The season’s silent nights of the Holiday Market have arrived. With a noticeable drop in supply and demand, the buyers and sellers that remain need to adjust their expectations accordingly.
