Autumn Market
Expect a drop in the supply of available homes, falling demand, and the overall speed of the market to remain the same.
The Autumn Market in Los Angeles County begins around the end of August when the kids head back to their classrooms and ends a week before Thanksgiving, the start of the Holiday Market.
This year has shaped up to be the hottest Autumn Market since tracking began in 2004.
In September, on average, there are 7,938 homes that are placed on the market, 12% less than the annual height of 8,992 homes in June. As the year progresses, fewer homeowners will enter the fray.
Instead, the market will remain the same until ringing in 2022. With both the inventory and demand dropping at similar rates, the overall feel of the market, will not change. This results in a Market Time that remains almost unchanged.
In looking at the 5-year average from 2015 through 2019 (excluding 2020 due to COVID-19 skewing the data), the supply of homes has decreased by 7% from the end of August to the second week of November. On average, demand dropped by 12%, and the Expected Market Time increased by 5 days. That would be a decrease in the supply of available homes from 8,702 two weeks ago to 8,093 homes by mid-November. Demand would drop from 6,467 pending sales to 5,691. With both supply and demand falling, the Expected Market Time would rise from 40 to 45 days, the highest level since the end of January.
An Expected Market Time below 60 days is a Hot Seller’s Market. At 45 days, there are plenty of showings, sellers get to call the shots during the negotiating process, multiple offers are the norm, and home values are rising rapidly. With the Los Angeles County housing market stuck well below 60 days through the end of the year, what you see is what you get. Even with demand falling along with inventory, the overall feel of the market for buyers will not change much at all.
Now that the Autumn Market is here, there will be fewer homes coming on the market, demand will decrease, and housing will not change much. The calm of autumn means less activity and a cyclical change to housing.