Fall Market Expectations
Rates have slowly made their way from just over 7% for the first couple of months of the year to nearly 6.25% today, paving the way for a bump in buyer demand.
Anyone who has taken up running knows that initially it is hard to run that far. A great strategy is to simply run a mile consistently for a couple of weeks, and then slowly ramp up the mileage. Going from a mile to a mile-and-a-half, from a mile-and-a-half to two miles, and then from two miles to three miles over the course of many weeks allows the body to adjust to the increasing demands of longer distance workouts. The consistency and slow progression build endurance, allowing a novice runner to run farther and farther distances. This approach is not instant; it does not happen overnight. Instead, over time, the new runner slowly improves.
Mortgage rates have reached their lowest level of the year, nearly 6.25%. It too did not happen overnight. They started the year at just above 7% and eclipsed 7.25% in mid-January. Mortgage rates tend to fluctuate from week to week, yet the trend has been for rates to improve slowly from month to month. They have been consistently below 7% since the end of May. They dropped below 6.75% at the start of August, and then dropped below 6.5% at the beginning of September. With weaker job numbers, they have settled close to 6.25%. Over time, mortgage rates have slowly improved.
These lower mortgage rates have arrived just as the housing market transitioned from the Summer Market to the Autumn Market. In real estate, the Autumn Market spans from the beginning of September, with the last hurrah of summer, Labor Day, and runs through mid-November, the week before Thanksgiving. Typically, in Los Angeles County, this is the time of year when the supply of available homes slowly decreases, along with a corresponding slow decline in buyer demand. With both supply and demand falling at a similar pace, the Expected Market Time does not change much.
This year, with mortgage rates at their lowest level since last October, the Autumn Market is looking a bit different. Although inventory will gradually decline, as it usually does, demand is set to rise. Typically, fall does not bring stronger demand, but years of limited affordability have kept buyers on the sidelines. As rates and affordability improve, buyer demand will grow. With a declining supply and rising demand, the Expected Market Time will improve, and the market will speed up.
Last year was a similar story. Rates dropped below 6.5% at the end of August 2024 for the first time since May 2023. They bounced between 6% and 6.5% for 47 days, through the start of October. Demand (a snapshot of the number of new pending sales over the prior month) grew from 3,585 in mid-September to 3,897 in mid-October, an unprecedented 9% rise. The inventory grew by less than 1%. The Expected Market Time (the number of days it takes to sell all Los Angeles County listings at the current buying pace) dropped from 100 days, its highest level of the year, to 92 days, a substantial improvement seemingly overnight.
Mortgage rates are at 6.27% as of September 11th. For a $1 million home purchase with 20% down, the monthly payment would be $4,936. That is similar to last year’s 6.15% and $4,874 monthly payment, only $62 per month higher. In 2023, rates were nearly a whole percentage point higher at 7.24% and climbing. The $1 million home purchase would be a $5,452 payment, a considerable $516 per month higher than today, or nearly $6,200 per year.
Demand is currently at 3,810 pending sales. That is 6% higher than last year’s 3,585 pending sales, and 11% higher than 2023’s 3,419 level. This year, there are significantly more homes to choose from compared to the last couple of years, with 14,885 available today versus 11,897 last year, representing a 25% increase. The inventory has nearly doubled since two years ago, when there were only 8,210 homes on the market. Today’s Expected Market Time is at 117 days, contrasted to last year’s 100 days, and 2023’s 72 days. The overall market is slower this year due to increased competition among sellers.
Lower mortgage rates improve affordability, and, with duration, they fuel an increase in buyer demand. This year, demand is poised to repeat last year’s uncharacteristic autumn surge. It appears that rates will remain below 6.5% for several months, a period significantly longer than last year’s brief reprieve from the higher mortgage rate environment. And the inventory is already slowly falling. With the inventory falling and demand rising, the Expected Market Time is primed to fall. The Autumn Market will be a turning point for the Los Angeles County housing market. The longer rates remain below 6.5%, the more pronounced the change
